Tennis: U.S. Open

With one of the biggest tennis betting tournaments of the year in full swing, we’re getting an idea of who’s looking good so far and who you should avoid betting if you haven’t done so already.

Federer, of course, went into his second-round matchup against Simon Greul as a huge favorite (-50000 to +3000). You get chills when you think about that one time in a blue moon Roger might suffer the huge upset, and all your money goes down the drain with it. For that reason and the diminished returns, it usually doesn’t make sense to bet the heavy favorites until at least the semi-finals (or before the tournament begins as a straight shot to take the title). It’s not going out on a limb or anything, but Federer will be there in the finals, and even if he meets up with a streaking Andy Murray, he’ll fight his way to being the champ again.

Here’s the wild card that should be on everyone’s radar, Nadal. He made short work of Gasquet, something he would’ve done healthy anyway. The question, though, is will his knee hold up when he really gets put to the test? And your guess is as good as the next gambler’s, so it’s all about weighing the line and the risk/return. If Nadal still commands too much of a heavy favorite tennis odds line, especially when he gets into the quarterfinals and further, I’d be extremely cautious before laying down any huge bets. Somebody out there is salivating at the prospect of making a name for himself by escorting Nadal out of the tournament. You often hear that line “even a Nadal at 80 percent is better than most of the players on tour,” well he’s got a huge target on his back right now regardless of what percentage he’s at. On the other side of the coin, though, if his knees do hold up, look for the risk/return to be well worth the investment if he gets to the semis. It will likely be considered an upset if he tops Federer or Murray, but he certainly has the talent and hunger to get the job done. He’s also proven himself on hard court enough to know he’s comfortable with the movement and brimming with confidence with early victories right now.