So this Sunday we get the CarFax 400 at the Michigan International Speedway at 2 p.m. Eastern. This is a 2-mile track in an oval, D-shape. The track requires a lot from the engines, but offers the space needed for aggressive passing, making it one of the favorites on the circuit, especially for drivers like Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch.

So is this the racy Tony picks up his third win? Could be, and he’ll likely be the favorite with around a nascar lines of 4:1 payoff. If there were one driver I would be straight up, even with those small odds, it would be Stewart on this race. The aggressive tone of the race should be perfect for him. He’s well worth taking the chance on a sub-$500 bet. If you’re not betting that heavy, I’d break it up and put some on Stewart straight and then take him in a few heads up bets against other drivers. A higher-risk against those who share the top of the standings with him like Jeff Gordon (probably around 6:1 payoff individually) and Jimmie Johnson is also worth it for the return.

I don’t like Jeff Gordon in these types of races, although he’s proven my hunches wrong before. But let’s also talk about Johnson. In last week’s race he was a 20:1 payoff and not even in the top 10 in the futures. He has one more win than the one guy ahead of him in the standings, and has been driving fine, so why the lack of respect? Good question, but I don’t expect it to improve all that much for this race, either, which means he could be a steal of a straight bet if the odds are up there again. You can always test the waters with a small $50 token bet that would land you a cool $1G if it pays off.

Nobody else worth taking straight up here in my opinion, but if you like Busch, he’ll probably be about a 15:1 payoff and you could do worse.