The NFL betting market has some tremendous value if you look hard enough. Often in the preseason, it is wise to find a team getting odds to win the division that are favorable, when compared to the likelihood of winning the division. When this happens, I like to hit the futures market hard.
The AFC East presents some interesting scenarios. The New England Patriots are favored by a mile to with the East. The Pats missed the playoffs last year, badly missing their all-world Quarterback Tom Brady. This season, Brady is back – fresh off his knee surgery. The Patriots chalk up the futures market with one to seven odds. Odds of this size are as close to the bookmakers calling this bet a sure thing. When Vegas says sure thing, I look to other bets that might pay me well should they come to pass.
The Miami Dolphins possess futures odds of eleven to two. Miami looks to run the Wildcat formation as effectively as they did last season. Since taking over the GM duties of the Dolphins, Bill Parcels has whipped this previously struggling franchise into shape. The Dolphins showed potential last season, making the playoffs and sitting as the defending division champions.
The New York Jets say goodbye to Brett Favre and hello to the future of the franchise, Mark Sanchez. The Jets finished the 2009 season with a 9-7 record and failed to make the playoffs. Though the Jets have upgraded on both sides of the ball, they are not quite ready for prime time. They have tough division opponents, and may well finish at the bottom of the standings. Despite getting odds of 14 to 1, money is better spent elsewhere – even if speculating.
Terrell Owens joins the Buffalo Bills and the league will take notice. Owens will line up opposite deep threat Lee Evans, who finally gets a respectable receiver opposite him. The Bills could contend for the division crown and have nfl odds of 15 to 2 to take down the division.
While there is clearly no value in betting the Patriots, I can make a valid argument on betting the defending division champions. The Bills show some value at 15 to 2, but are a bit further away than the Dolphins from coming together in full. The Dolphins get no respect at eleven to two odds; however, they get the respect of my value bet. Here’s to the wildcat!
NASCAR betting online and the Spring Cup series keep heating up and we race through the heart of the season. The standings are currently shaking out more or less as expected with a few exceptions here and there. Let’s take a look at the next race, and using a blueprint of the odds from the last few races, see what the individual payoffs might be and who’s worth laying some money down on.
So this Sunday we get the CarFax 400 at the Michigan International Speedway at 2 p.m. Eastern. This is a 2-mile track in an oval, D-shape. The track requires a lot from the engines, but offers the space needed for aggressive passing, making it one of the favorites on the circuit, especially for drivers like Tony Stewart and Kurt Busch.
So is this the racy Tony picks up his third win? Could be, and he’ll likely be the favorite with around a nascar lines of 4:1 payoff. If there were one driver I would be straight up, even with those small odds, it would be Stewart on this race. The aggressive tone of the race should be perfect for him. He’s well worth taking the chance on a sub-$500 bet. If you’re not betting that heavy, I’d break it up and put some on Stewart straight and then take him in a few heads up bets against other drivers. A higher-risk against those who share the top of the standings with him like Jeff Gordon (probably around 6:1 payoff individually) and Jimmie Johnson is also worth it for the return.
I don’t like Jeff Gordon in these types of races, although he’s proven my hunches wrong before. But let’s also talk about Johnson. In last week’s race he was a 20:1 payoff and not even in the top 10 in the futures. He has one more win than the one guy ahead of him in the standings, and has been driving fine, so why the lack of respect? Good question, but I don’t expect it to improve all that much for this race, either, which means he could be a steal of a straight bet if the odds are up there again. You can always test the waters with a small $50 token bet that would land you a cool $1G if it pays off.
Nobody else worth taking straight up here in my opinion, but if you like Busch, he’ll probably be about a 15:1 payoff and you could do worse.
Phillies at Cubs: Or better known today as the battle of the H’s. What? Yeah, it was a stretch, but the pitching matchup is J.A. Happ vs. Rich Harden. Happ is 7-2 with a sweet 2.97 ERA and impressive 1.16 WHIP. He’s throwing well, but the Phillies have lost 4 of the last 6 he started. Still, he seems to get the job done when he’s on the mound. Harden is having a very un-Ace-like year with a 7-6 record and 4.5 ERA, not great numbers at all for the NL. Add in a 1.35 WHIP to that and you wonder what spot he really should be pitching in for this Cubs rotation. This should be a great series. Both teams are atop their division with very similar records (although they took wildly different roads to get there this year). The Cubs are still 13th in the NL in batting average, but they’ve at least improved from 15th in the last few weeks. If they can just get a closer in there they can rely on, the pitching would be their saving grace. The Phillies, well I still don’t know exactly how their doing it, with a baseball betting average of .260 and 4.4 team ERA they must be redefining the term “timely hitting and pitching” because they’re sure not exhibiting “consistent” pitching and hitting. I think the Cubs get the edge here, despite Happ’s record. Chicago is playing really well at home, they’re healthy and they need a series like this to kick them into overdrive for that expected postseason run. They’ll be the favorites, and I’d go with the experts and bet them fairly heavily. A $200 wager wouldn’t be too risky. Cubs -135, Phillies +120.
Rays at Angels: The Rays aren’t dead in the water yet, but if they hope to stay in contention for either the AL East title or the Wild Card (and they both kinda go hand-in-hand right now – thanks New York and Boston), they need to string together more than two or three wins at a time, especially against their division rivals. However, in this game they have to contend with one of the hottest teams in baseball in neighboring AL division out West. The Angels offer up Ervin Santana, who really hasn’t recovered from his slow start this year, slumming it with a 3-6 record and ERA above 7. He’s been one of the dark spots during an otherwise bright couple months for the Angels as they climbed back to elite status. The Rays’ David Price isn’t much better with a .500 record an 5.1 ERA. For games like this, it’s going to come down to momentum. The Angels will have finished up series at Chicago and against Texas Rangers, both teams that can hit, so they might be looking at a depleted and tired bullpen for this series. And if there’s one area the Rays can beat you, it’s with persistence and hammering away with quality at-bats. Even given those conditions, though, the Angels are the better bet. The line won’t be huge, but significant enough that you might want to bet the over, even if it’s at 12 or 13. I can see this being an 8-7 game or higher. Angels -150, Rays +140. Take the Angels and the over.
With one of the biggest tennis betting tournaments of the year in full swing, we’re getting an idea of who’s looking good so far and who you should avoid betting if you haven’t done so already.
Federer, of course, went into his second-round matchup against Simon Greul as a huge favorite (-50000 to +3000). You get chills when you think about that one time in a blue moon Roger might suffer the huge upset, and all your money goes down the drain with it. For that reason and the diminished returns, it usually doesn’t make sense to bet the heavy favorites until at least the semi-finals (or before the tournament begins as a straight shot to take the title). It’s not going out on a limb or anything, but Federer will be there in the finals, and even if he meets up with a streaking Andy Murray, he’ll fight his way to being the champ again.
Here’s the wild card that should be on everyone’s radar, Nadal. He made short work of Gasquet, something he would’ve done healthy anyway. The question, though, is will his knee hold up when he really gets put to the test? And your guess is as good as the next gambler’s, so it’s all about weighing the line and the risk/return. If Nadal still commands too much of a heavy favorite tennis odds line, especially when he gets into the quarterfinals and further, I’d be extremely cautious before laying down any huge bets. Somebody out there is salivating at the prospect of making a name for himself by escorting Nadal out of the tournament. You often hear that line “even a Nadal at 80 percent is better than most of the players on tour,” well he’s got a huge target on his back right now regardless of what percentage he’s at. On the other side of the coin, though, if his knees do hold up, look for the risk/return to be well worth the investment if he gets to the semis. It will likely be considered an upset if he tops Federer or Murray, but he certainly has the talent and hunger to get the job done. He’s also proven himself on hard court enough to know he’s comfortable with the movement and brimming with confidence with early victories right now.